What’s the difference between being linked and being caused? If I tell you that every time I dropped a water balloon on the ground it broke. You could say gravity caused the water balloon to break. But what if I didn’t tell you were always filling the balloons to their maximum capacity and they were dropped on rough, almost sharp concrete, would you make that same conclusion that gravity caused water balloons to break?
What if they were half full and landed on grass and none broke? Would you conclude that gravity does not cause water balloon breakage?
It seems today the public DEMANDs an explanation for everything, if A, then B. But in just about every case it’s never that simple.
The real explanation of why a water balloon breaks is when the pressure of the water inside the balloon exceeds the tensile strength of the rubber. Sharp objects exert more force per unit square meter than other items such as grass or perfectly flat surfaces. However this is too complicated for journalist catering to a public with poor and getting worse science understanding and desire to create sensation and get attention.
To truly know something is causal (A implies B) is hard and takes time.
Don’t confuse correlation with causation. While these examples sound funny, you can read about them every day, especially with medical studies and social sciences.
The Story: You’ve got a 100 monkeys flipping coins. Eventually after 10 tries there’s a single monkey left that managed to flip it 10 times in a row heads…
Same Story: All 100 monkeys have a theory that use that use to predict coin flips. All but 1 monkey was successful 10 times and is 100% accurate.
Same Story: I can predict the future of the middle east, the economy or the weather because I’ve done so in the past with my theories.
If you look at this you realize how susceptible we all are to people that promise us they can predict the future. I suspect that science combined with clever statistics or even complicated mathematics is now the new bones, tarot cards, or crystal balls.
Isn’t it funny how we haven’t changed all that much?
I really don’t understand these reviews. I’ve sold hundreds of books and can barely get a single review, yet this book has been released just over a day and it has 54 reviews. Half 5 star, half 1 start. I’m not sure how someone can read a book in 24 hours then find the time to write a fair review about it. I don’t ever plan on reading this book, but I just think that something else has to be at work i.e. paid reviewers.
I started out purchasing a WordPress theme, thinking that I could just find one, configure it, and be done… Wrong. The theme didn’t work and it did not have any helpful support. I should have done it myself and am now doing that.
I have a mantra I’m working on but I don’t have the wording quite right, so stay tuned…
Over the past few years I’ve been trying to get away from using FTP and deploying an entire directory to just update a web app. I’ve used services like Springloops and even tried a tool like Capistrano, but nothing really was 1) Simple and 2) Free until I wrote my own bash script. Here’s basically what you do.
Create SSH keys between your local machine and your remote box.
I was thinking about this last night after a conversation with a friend and I thought I’d write a small post about it.
To get a car for free is all about timing the resale value of a car and having a little cash on hand. Take my truck a 2007 Tacoma 4WD. It has a resale value of $15,000.
Let me give you the resale values of the same make & model on either side of mine:
2006 – $12,000
2008 – $15,000
2009 – $16,500
Now if I wanted to keep my truck forever I would just trade-up once a year for a car about the same cost as mine.
Take it further.
Let’s say I really hunt for a good deal and I get a 2008 on the lower end ($13.5k), then a year later I’m able to sell it and make a little profit, $2K. I do this a few years in a row now I could be up to a $20K car/truck. Still not paying anything other than sales tax. If you’re a good wheel & dealer, you can offset this cost by your negotiation skills.
So now this is how you get and keep a car for free, the key is timing the resale value and year you’re purchasing.
I’ve struggled to put together a book idea into a coherent logical sequence. Something like:
here’s the overall pattern/theme
part 1 of pattern
part 2 of pattern
part 1 connects to part 2 like this but not like that
summary of the pattern
But I’ve noticed as I am reading (very popular books) that the books have a basic title and a coherent table of contents, but there’s very little beauty in how the book is put together or woven from one topic to the next. The books are more-or-less, just a loosely connected collection of thoughts, connected by a table of contents and a title.
I’ve purchased and read a lot of books now that I have Kindle for the iPad and I’m thinking that maybe I’ve been trying too hard, the bar has been lowered… Sad.. Glad…